Politics

GOP Polls: Bad News For Dems Out West

September 2, 2010 8:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) |

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By Jeremy P. Jacobs

Another week, another batch of polls from the conservative American Action Network that show Democratic House incumbents in trouble. This week, the group focused on 10 districts in the West.

The group surveyed 400 voters in each of the following districts: AZ-01, AZ 05, AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47, CO-03, CO-04, NM-01, NV-03 and OR-05. There was a margin of error of +/-4.9% in each individual poll.

When the Ayres, McHenry and Assoc. surveys — which were conducted at end of August — are combined, only 37 percent of respondents say their Dem incumbent deserves re-election while 52 percent say it’s time for someone else. By a three-to-one margin, respondents said the country is on the wrong track. Pres. Obama is viewed unfavorably in in these districts by 51% of respondents.

Now, before we get into each poll, it’s worth keeping in mind that this is a poll conducted for a conservative organization. And Dems have pushed back against American Action Forum’s previous surveys, saying that — among other things — questions about health care and other issues are asked before the ballot test, potentially skewing the results.

Here’s a cheat sheet to the results: Republicans lead in AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-03 and CO-04. The poll shows deadlock in AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47 and NV-03. Dems are leading in NM-01 and OR-05.

A couple findings buried in the polls jump out. In some of these districts (AZ-01, CO-03, CA-11, NV-03), 70% or more say the country is on the wrong track.

In AZ-08, Tea Party candidate Jesse Kelly (R) is in a dead heat with Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) — 46% to 46%. Kelly knocked off establishment candidate Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary last week.

There is one Dem shining star: Rep. Martin Heinrich in NM-01. Heinrich leads Jon Barela (R) 49% to 42%. There are also signs that this district is firmly in Dem control, at least for now. A Dem leads on the generic ballot test here 40% to 36% — a rarity in these polls. Obama is also viewed favorably by 52% of respondents in this district.

Check out a breakdown of the races after the jump. You can get the full polling data here.

AZ 01
Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 41%
Paul Gosar (R): 47%

AZ 05
Rep. Harry Mitchell (D): 44%
David Schweikert (R): 50%

AZ 08
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D): 46%
Jesse Kelly (R): 46%

CA 11
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D): 44%
David Harmer (R): 45%

CA 47
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D): 45%
Van Tran (R): 43%

CO 03
Rep. John Salazar (D): 43%
Scott Tipton (R): 51%

CO 04
Rep. Betsey Markey (D): 39%
Cory Gardner (R): 50%

NM 01
Rep. Martin Heinrich (D): 49%
Jon Barela (R): 42%

NV 03
Rep. Dina Titus (D): 45%
Joe Heck (R): 48%

OR 05
Rep. Kurt Schrader (D): 44%
Scott Bruun (R): 36%

545  PEOPLE–By Charlie Reese

                Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them..

                Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?

                Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes,WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?

                You and I don’t propose a federal budget. The President does.

                You and I don’t have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does.

                You and I don’t write the tax code, Congress does.

                You and I don’t set fiscal policy, Congress does.

                You and I don’t control monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank does.

                One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one President, and nine Supreme Court justices equates to 545 human beings out of the 300 million are directly, legally, morally, and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country.

                I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by the Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered, but private, central bank.

                I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a congressman, or a President to do one cotton-picking thing. I don’t care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator’s responsibility to determine how he votes.

                Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party.

                What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker, who stood up and criticized the President for creating  deficits…..   The President can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress to accept it.

                The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and approving appropriations and taxes. Who is the speaker of the House? Nancy Pelosi. She is the leader of the majority party. She and fellow House members, not the President, can approve any budget they want.  If the President vetoes it, they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.

                It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million cannot replace 545 people who stand convicted — by present facts — of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can’t think of a single domestic problem that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power of the federal  government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to  exist.

                If the tax code is unfair, it’s because they want it unfair.

                If the budget is in the red, it’s because they want it in the red ..

                If the Army & Marines are in  Iraq  and Afghanistan it’s because they want them in Iraq and Afghanistan…

                If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement plan not available to the people, it’s because they want it that way.

                There are no insoluble government problems.

                Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take this power. Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there exists disembodied mystical forces like “the economy,” “inflation,” or “politics” that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do.

                Those 545 people, and they  alone, are responsible.

                They, and they alone, have the power..

                They, and they alone, should be held accountable by the people who are their bosses.

                Provided the voters have the gumption to manage their own employees…

                We should vote all of  them out of office and clean up their mess!

                Charlie Reese is a former columnist of the Orlando  Sentinel  Newspaper.

                What you do with this article now that you have read it……… Is up to you.
                This might be funny if it weren’t so  true.
                Be sure to read all the way to the end:
                Tax his land,
                Tax his bed,
                Tax the table,

            At which he’s fed.
            Tax his tractor,

            Tax his mule,
            Teach him taxes
            Are the rule.
            Tax his work,
            Tax his pay,
            He works for peanuts anyway!
            Tax his cow,
            Tax his goat,
            Tax his pants,
            Tax his coat.
            Tax his ties,
            Tax his shirt,
            Tax his work,
            Tax his dirt.
            Tax his tobacco,
            Tax his drink,
            Tax him if he
            Tries to think.
            Tax his cigars,
            Tax his beers,
            If he cries
            Tax his tears.
            Tax his car,
            Tax his gas,
            Find other ways
            To tax his ass.
            Tax all he has
            Then let him know
            That you won’t be done
            Till he has no dough.
            When he screams and hollers;
            Then tax him some more,
            Tax him till
            He’s good and sore.
            Then tax his coffin,
            Tax his grave,
            Tax the sod in
            Which he’s laid…
            Put these words
            Upon his tomb,
            Taxes drove me
            to my doom…’
            When he’s gone,
            Do not relax,
            Its time to apply
            The inheritance tax..
        Accounts Receivable Tax
        Building Permit Tax
        CDL license Tax
        Cigarette Tax
        Corporate Income Tax
        Dog License Tax
        Excise Taxes
        Federal Income Tax
        Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
        Fishing License Tax
        Food License Tax
        Fuel Permit Tax
        Gasoline Tax (currently 44.75 cents per gallon)
        Gross Receipts Tax
        Hunting License Tax
        Inheritance Tax
        Inventory Tax
        IRS Interest Charges IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
        Liquor Tax
        Luxury Taxes
        Marriage License Tax
        Medicare Tax
        Personal Property Tax
        Property Tax
        Real Estate Tax
        Service Charge Tax
        Social Security Tax
        Road Usage Tax
        Recreational Vehicle Tax
        Sales Tax
        School Tax
        State Income Tax
        State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
        Telephone Federal Excise Tax
        Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax
        Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Taxes
        Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
        Telephone Recurring and Nonrecurring Charges Tax
        Telephone   State  and Local Tax
        Telephone Usage Charge Tax
        Utility Taxes
        Vehicle License Registration Tax
        Vehicle Sales Tax
        Watercraft Registration Tax
        Well Permit Tax
        Workers Compensation Tax

        
        STILL THINK THIS IS FUNNY? Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, & our nation was the most prosperous in the world. We had absolutely no national debt, had the largest middle class in the world, and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.

        What in the hell happened? Can you spell ‘politicians?’

Giffords takes on Kelly about his statements about reforms to Social Security. See the entire KUAT interview HERE. The social security statements are around the 45 minute mark. Kelly suggests a dual track for social security, one for those that already paid in and are about to receive benefits and those younger workers that most likely will never see social security benefits when they retire.

From TIME magazine, a story about the Democrats strategies to cloud up the mid terms.

In a move as predictable as Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown, Democrats are using Social Security scare tactics to gain ground before the November election. President Barack Obama is not only tolerating this classic old politics maneuver by his party — he is leading the charge.

Amid a flurry of Democratic Party news releases and press conferences warning voters that Republicans are targeting Social Security for destruction, the President devoted his radio and Internet address last week to commemorating the 75th anniversary of the signing of the law that created the program. He cautioned that “some Republican leaders in Congress don’t seem to have learned any lessons” from the past and are “pushing to make privatizing Social Security a key part of their legislative agenda if they win a majority in Congress.” This familiar refrain might indeed help the Democrats limit their midterm losses, but Obama’s involvement shows that on this issue he is putting party before bipartisanship and that he sometimes can be tone-deaf to the human element required to change Washington’s acid culture.
(See pictures of Obama signing the health care bill.)

It is clear why Democrats are raising the specter of Republican

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2012449,00.html?xid=rss-politics-huffpo#ixzz0xs68iO1d

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Your government budget

Something to ponder when you hear about public employee pensions and the state or local government budget.

Jonathan Paton hired perennialloser, Nathan Sproul, in the last few weeks of his campaign and guess what?

Nathan Sproul of Lincoln Strategies was brought in to siphon off a bunch of cash and deliver no results. When the consultant becomes the story the campaign is in trouble. Google Nathan Sproul and you’ll see some of his handy work.

What’ sad is Sproul has no investment in the candidates, no care in the outcome of the race or discernible political philosophy. I guess he’s perfect for politics.  When will the money backers who continue to spend for dismal results ever learn?

I’m sure we’ll see him in southern Arizona again soon, unfortunately.

From The Huffington Post:

John McCain’s campaign has directed $175,000 to the firm of a Republican operative accused of massive voter registration fraud in several states.

According to campaign finance records, a joint committee of the McCain-Palin campaign, the RNC and the the California Republican Party, made a $175,000 payment to the group Lincoln Strategy in June for purposes of “registering voters.” The managing partner of that firmis Nathan Sproul, a renowned GOP operative who has been investigated on multiple occasions for suppressing Democratic voter turnout, throwing away registration forms and even spearheading efforts to get Ralph Nader on ballots to hinder the Democratic ticket.

In a letterto the Justice Department last October, House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers said that that Sproul’s alleged activities “clearly suppress votes and violate the law.”

That Sproul would come under the employment umbrella of the McCain campaign — the Republican National Committee has also separately paid Lincoln Strategy at least $37,000 for voter registration efforts this cycle — is not terribly surprising. Sproul, who has donated nearly $30,000 to McCain’s campaign, has been in the good graces of GOP officials for the past decade despite charges of ethical and potentially legal wrongdoing.

……

Indeed, Sproul’s history is filled with allegations of political misdeeds. During the 2004 election, Sproul & Associates (the former name of Lincoln Strategy) was accused of attempting to destroy forms collected by Democratic voters in Nevada. That same year in Oregon, Sproul & Associates allegedly instructed canvassers to only accept Republican registration forms in addition to destroying those turned in by Democrats.

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The heat is being turned up on Tucson’s own front runner for the Democratic nomination for US Sentate, Rodney Glassman. Those of us south of the Gila have come to love the guy if for nothing more than plenty of fodder to glob about.

Looks like campaign staffers are leaving the Glassman campaign, according to Arizona Capital Times,  because of:

But sources said staff is fed up with Glassman’s unwillingness to spend money, excessive micromanaging, berating campaign workers and misleading comments about his willingness to self-fund.

A second story was sent to us by Investigative Journalist turned Senate Candidate, John Dougherty. It has to do with who controls Glassmans personal campaign loans, him or his family.

PHOENIX (Aug. 22) – The Arizona Capitol Times reported Saturday that sources inside Rodney Glassman’s U.S. Senate campaign contend Glassman does not have direct control over a $500,000 personal loan Glassman claims to have made to his campaign.
The Capitol Times cites multiple sources close to the campaign stating that “the candidate’s family” put $500,000 into the Glassman’s campaign and that “Glassman’s father is controlling the purse strings.”
 
Federal Election Commission regulations allow candidates to make unlimited personal loans to their campaign committees. However, FEC requires a candidate to have direct control over the money loaned to the campaign.
 
Loans, including those from a candidate’s relatives, including parents and spouses, are considered campaign contributions and limited to only $2,400 in the primary and general election cycles.

The reality is the defections and campaign contribution allegations are a little too late with the role of early ballots. Watch for McCain to have a great time with Rodney should he win the primary.